Now we know Al Queda can not put new wine in old bottles as the saying goes. After getting a translation of the tape and careful examination it was the same reused garbage of recordings.
Before dissecting the tape the issue of whether it was an As Shab production needs addressed.
One report yesterday stated that it didn’t have the As Shab markings. Leading to the conclusion that Osama bin Laden (ObL) was running out of money. Yet, the translation I seen had a picture of ObL and As Shab markings. Whether those are the images with this tape or if there was any images is still a mystery.
The 1st paragraph of this tape is clearly classic ObL from 1998. The mention of Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Kashmir, and Chechnya in that order goes back to 1998. It is the rhetoric used to start the upswing of ObL network over the occupation of Palestine, sanctions on Iraq and international recognition of the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The overthrow of the Somalia government along with the ongoing disputes over Kashmir was being used to get recruits in Chechnya.
A stolen Gaza certainly is before the September 2005 withdrawal of settlers who would have "stole" the land. Liberation of Jerusalem and a stolen Gaza is surely from 1998.
Into the 2nd paragraph one can see it is two recordings. The first part goes back to 1998 propaganda. References to Bremer, Allawi, Sistani, and this Tantawi surely were relevant in 2004 not in 2008. Even the remote village prayer thing came up in news reports in 2004 in Iraq. In fact as the reports of problems with Friday prayers were coming questions of what the real reason was for causing these incidents. Then one of the recordings had that exact reference in order to prove that ObL was alive.
The first part of the 3rd paragraph is a continuation of the second part of the 2nd paragraph. Which is a reused promotion of Saddam’s cause for Palestine against the UN and Security Council. Mostly used to generate dislike for the Iraq War more than for the Palestinian cause. When this recording came out the first time in a different tape most pundits were asking why ObL was talking about Palestine instead of Iraq.
Why would ObL want youths to carry weapons in the street protests? Well, that particular middle section was a recording in reference to an attempt to bring down the violence by having peaceful protests. Unlike ObL who says their duty is to proactively kill people. Addressing his followers as "my Islamic Nation" and to rise up against their rulers is to appear a strong leader of more people than he has.
From close to the end of the 3rd paragraph to the end of the 4th is one recording going back 1998 speech ObL gave in Afghanistan to the people his thugs were occupying. ObL tries to make it sound that the United States had nothing to do with the defeating of the Soviet Union. Directing the listener to believe wealthy donors from Arab Muslim nations funded the war against the Soviet Union. This is flowery speech to create an atmosphere of chaos as to who supported the fighters in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union.
One might want to give credence to the mention of Hitler and mujahdeen wanted dead or alive as belonging to what President Bush said after 9/11. Yet, a more observant thought would show this a 1998 recording that produced the Hitler tactics used against President Bush. Not to mention ObL’s wanting of sympathy for being a target of the CIA in 1998.
With all the discord about whether terrorist attacks have been thwarted or not points to this recording being old. As the reference is very vague since there hasn’t been any attacks in the United States. Regardless of whether or not they were trying to attack or just probe after 9/11.
As far as the popularity of the United States at anytime in the past is never all that great. The Clinton administration tried to portray good relations with the rest of the world. The reality is no one liked us any better than they had before the Clintons. ObL indoctrination always states that America’s status is declining. This section which runs from the beginning of the 5th paragraph to the middle of the 7th paragraph, without fail, was recorded in 2004.
The citations of an Israel attack after "last days of two Bush terms" and "during that era" assuredly refers to President Bush 41’s one term and President Bush 43’s one term. Which was the saying going around in the chatter during 2004. In October of 2004 there was an attack by 4 Palestinians who were then shot by Israeli Defense Forces on the border. It was a big deal at the time.
Whereas the era of strong America had to be a reference to the Clinton administration’s claims of peace and prosperity that lead to no one challenging the hegemony of the United States even during Bush 43rd’s first term. Newspeak of "drowning in the swamps of Iraq" along with the issue of vetoes in the Security Council was prevalent in 2004 not at the present time.
This piece of recording as I stated runs through the middle of the 7th paragraph. In the 6th paragraph talk of the price of the Iraq War causing the economy to collapse was a big issue in the 2004 campaign. Yassir Arafat was dying in the middle to late 2004. Everyone was talking about Mahmoud Abbas replacing Arafat. The citation of Abbas clearly was in 2004 in order to start a discord if there is a difference between Hamas, Fatah, and Al Queda.
ObL states his objections to the UN. The question must be asked. Why does anyone believe that Arafat who voiced disdain for the UN was planning on adhering to Resolution 242 on the recognition Israel? Since 1988 my ex-husband was suppose to recognize my right to exist and that hasn’t happened yet nor will it.
Concerning the naming of VP Elect Senator Biden one can see that the translation is cleaned up. The Arabic word is more than likely a generic term for someone of power or importance. Biden surely said something to that effect in 2004 and 2008. French President Sarkozy as stated before was a shoe in for Chiraq. Even though the general public wasn’t aware of it. His name had surfaced back in 2003-4 as a replacement for Chiraq. Then it came to be fulfilled.
News of what the Spanish Foreign Minister said about the Iraq war was during 2004 not now. During the 2004 appointment hearings Greenspan touting his less regulation stating that unless entitlement programs and taxes are cut the economy will look worse than the great depression. The German FM said a lot of things that could be related to the Iraq war or something else all the way back to 2004.
Seven years is 1998-2004, which included the embassy bombings, the Cole incident, 9/11, the Afghanistan war, and the Iraq war. Another 7 years would be from 2005-2011. Continuing on to 2012-2018: No big revelation here.
May one point out that there is no "we" in martyrdom of ObL, Saddam or Arafat. They are all cowards. The next section of the recording is from the middle of the 7th paragraph to about a third of the way into the 8th paragraph. It picks up by stating some poll of 75% of people happy to see a change. Clearly a poll that ran in 2004 and in 2008. If it was a real poll than Senator Kerry would have won. President Elect Obama would have won by a bigger margin.
Two wars were going on in 2004 and if there was a war with Iran at this time. Another piece would have been added to the effect of an Iranian war. Since that wasn’t happening it wasn’t added. Any reference to an Iranian war would have been generic.
What in God’s name is a "guerrilla war" "financed by interest-based loans"? Obviously, that was to be used in the context that the Americans are fighting a guerrilla war by interest based loans. Everyone knows that ObL uses contributions and they do not charge each other interest. Guess they didn’t have anything to really fit other than that recorded piece.
In the Arab Muslim media the translation would refer to the Ummah nation not Islamic nation. This next list of countries was more relevant in 2004 not 2008. Reason being the Islamic Maghreb hasn’t been referred to since 2004. Though if it could get back in the news. It would be used as evidence this is a new recording not an old one.
Single wealthy Muslims giving contributions was a bigger issue in 2004 then it is now. The rest of the broke up recordings of the 8th paragraph ascribe more to a 1996-8 mentality then 2004 or 2008. Back in the days of the Taliban taking over Afghanistan Al Queda stated that good Muslims must leave Saudi Arabia donate their wealth to ObL and live on mats. ObL ranks with that fanatic Jones guy who took over Johannesburg.
On to the 9th paragraph, which is so hyphenated, it leads me to believe it was probably spliced together and then re-recorded. King Louis of France and the American Revolution was propaganda used by Al Queda back in early 1990’s leads to my theory of Sarkozy being a pawn of the masters of manipulation.
After stating democratic means are lies in Afghanistan and Iraq ObL goes on to suggest the Muslim can elect their own President. Clearly made in respects to the Iraq election of 2004. Since the election in Iraq for January 31, 2009 clearly came out of the blue. Plans to upset the elections do not need a tape released.
The last paragraph referring to the decline of Zionist-Crusader wave is from the discussion of Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. If it didn’t happen then there probably is a recording to the opposite of the "will of Allah this year." Once again the mentioning of Palestine are relevant in any period from 1996-2004-2008.
All of this begs one question. Why? Answers include reasons such as upstaging President Bush’s farewell address. An attempt to effect the elections in Iraq. Leading to a perception that ObL is alive. Forcing President Obama to go into Pakistan looking for a man he will not find. Thus, making him look worse than President Bush. After the media has built up so much expectations for President Obama.
This analysis is not to say that there isn’t a problem in Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, or the Middle East. Just trying to keep from having those press myths used against this country or our President again for whatever reason. Finally, yes, nothing in this transcript leads me to believe anything in this tape was recorded after 2004.
By Ravin Black
January 15, 2009
"A people without reliable news is, sooner or later, a people without the basis of freedom." Harold J. Laski: A Grammar of Politics
8 hours ago